2013 MORPS Team Projections

2013 MORPS MLB Team Projections are outlined below.  Unlike last year, I am not going to introduce the projections one team at a time.  One advantage of moving to a relational database is that the formulas, once applied correctly, are available for all teams in all divisions.

American League

2012 AL East

Wins

Losses

Boston

87

75

New York

87

75

Toronto

84

78

Tampa Bay

80

82

Baltimore

72

90

2012 AL Central

Wins

Losses

Detroit

96

66

Chicago

82

80

Kansas City

81

81

Cleveland

74

88

Minnesota

71

91

2012 AL West

Wins

Losses

Los Angeles

91

71

Texas

86

76

Oakland

81

81

Seattle

77

85

Houston

64

98

 

National League

2012 NL East

Wins

Losses

Atlanta

88

74

Washington

87

75

Philadelphia

85

77

New York

77

85

Miami

68

94

2012 NL Central

Wins

Losses

Cincinnati

88

74

Saint Louis

88

74

Milwaukee

84

78

Pittsburgh

74

88

Chicago

70

92

2012 NL West

Wins

Losses

San Francisco

88

74

Los Angeles

86

76

Arizona

83

79

Colorado

79

83

San Diego

72

90

Projections were somewhat easier this year because all divisions in both leagues have the same number of teams.  This means that each team plays the same number of games within their respective divisions and leagues as well as the same number of inter-league games.  This does not mean that the competition that each team plays is the same.  Some divisions, as always, are stronger than others.

I must admit that my projections were a surprise.  They certainly don’t align with the messages I am hearing on major talk radio shows over the last month.  No one has Boston on top of the American League East.  Their pitching staff is projected to be one of the five worst in the American League.  However, their offense is projected to be the best in the majors.  One team that has received a lot of attention in recent weeks is the Cleveland Indians.  Their offense is certainly going to be better than last year, but their starting pitching is projected to be the worst in baseball.

Projected division winners in the American League are Detroit, Los Angeles, and Boston.  New York and Texas are projected to be the AL wild card teams.  The National League division winners are Atlanta, San Francisco and Cincinnati.  The NL wild card teams are Saint Louis and Washington.  I found it interesting that four National League teams have an equivalent projection of 88 wins.  Unlike the American League, the National League doesn’t have any run away division winners.

Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.

As always, feel free to post your comments.

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