The 2016 MORPS baseline projections are ready. This is the third year we have provided baselines. These projections use all the models we have put together over the years for projecting player performance. This means that the projections are still based on four years of data, positional mean regression, etc. However, they do not account for a player changing positions, reductions in playing time, new players to the big leagues, etc. We entered all MLB player transactions into system since the end of the regular season last year. While this doesn’t guarantee that we have caught every trade, free agent move or player being waived; we are hoping that the majority of these type of transactions were captured in the system.
Some may like the baseline projections more than the final version. I read one review of MORPS in 2014 that criticized the fact that we took the time to model anticipate plate appearances and batters faced for each team before releasing our final projections. They didn’t consider that process “scientific”. Our perspective is that the modeling allows us to adjust the ratios between each stat and plate appearance or batter faced to account for situations that weren’t present the year before. This could be a player being part of a platoon when they played the position full-time the year before. It could be a reduction in playing time due to the appearance of a blockbuster free agent or anticipated rookie hitting the big leagues. It could also be a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery after being out of the game for over a year. Regardless of the situation, we believe that the modeling of plate appearances and batters faced for each team adds significant value to MORPS projections. This view is supported by our #1 ranking in 2014 for player projections using root mean square error (RMSE). If you still doubt our ability to accurately model these situations or you have an early fantasy draft and need something now, you’re in luck. You can use our baseline projections.
So…. without further ado, we present the 2016 MORPS Baseline Projections. The Batting and Pitching projections are available in excel and PDF formats. Follow the links below to download your copy.
If you player Roto baseball, you will find the projections already sorted in Roto Rank order. If you play a more realistic version of fantasy baseball, like BBM, you will need to re-sort the XLS spreadsheet in RC order for batters and OERV order for pitchers. Play Ball!