2016 MORPS Baseline Projections

The 2016 MORPS baseline projections are ready.  This is the third year we have provided baselines. These projections use all the models we have put together over the years for projecting player performance.   This means that the projections are still based on four years of data, positional mean regression, etc.  However, they do not account for a player changing positions, reductions in playing time, new players to the big leagues, etc.  We entered all MLB player transactions into system since the end of the regular season last year.  While this doesn’t guarantee that we have caught every trade, free agent move or player being waived; we are hoping that the majority of these type of transactions were captured in the system.

Some may like the baseline projections more than the final version.  I read one review of MORPS in 2014 that criticized the fact that we took the time to model anticipate plate appearances and batters faced for each team before releasing our final projections.  They didn’t consider that process “scientific”.   Our perspective is that the modeling allows us to adjust the ratios between each stat and plate appearance or batter faced to account for situations that weren’t present the year before.  This could be a player being part of a platoon when they played the position full-time the year before.  It could be a reduction in playing time due to the appearance of a blockbuster free agent or anticipated rookie hitting the big leagues.  It could also be a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery after being out of the game for over a year.  Regardless of the situation, we believe that the modeling of plate appearances and batters faced for each team adds significant value to MORPS projections.  This view is supported by our #1 ranking in 2014 for player projections using root mean square error (RMSE).  If you still doubt our ability to accurately model these situations or you have an early fantasy draft and need something now, you’re in luck.  You can use our baseline projections.

So…. without further ado, we present the 2016 MORPS Baseline Projections.   The Batting and Pitching projections are available in excel and PDF formats.  Follow the links below to download your copy.

2016 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (XLS)

2016 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (PDF)

2016 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (XLS)

2016 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (PDF)

 

If you player Roto baseball, you will find the projections already sorted in Roto Rank order.  If you play a more realistic version of fantasy baseball, like BBM, you will need to re-sort the XLS spreadsheet in RC order for batters and OERV order for pitchers. Play Ball!

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6 comments

  1. Craig

    Thanks for the projections. Can you please provide a bit more detail regarding the differences between your baseline projections and your final version. When I review the 2016 baseline projections I see cPA/aPA and cBF/aBF which leads me to believe you have already modeled Plate Appearances and Batters Faced. However, in your commentary above it sounds like those are your next steps once lineups/rotations get more reliable. Is the final version of your projections just an update of the aPA/aBF metrics? Thanks for the clarification!

    • Obie

      Good question Craig. You will notice that the cPA/aPA and cBF/aBF are exactly the same for all baseline projections. Once we have modeled each team, the aPA and aBF will change for any player that is adjusted for the various reasons that were discussed in our most recent post. Those that are not adjusted will simply maintain the calculated values in the aPA and aBF fields.

      • Craig

        Do you have an ETA on when you will have the aPA and aBF metrics ready for 2016. I realize it is best to wait until Spring Training is complete but many of my drafts are coming up and I am looking for these estimates to integrate into my projections.

        Thanks!

      • Obie

        I’ve finished 22 teams. We are close. I should have an initial set out sometime this weekend.

    • Obie

      The roto rankings are based upon a combination of standard categories. His 265 projected average, 74 projected RBIs, and 22 hRs are certainly not toward the top in those categories. For those in simulation leagues, you will also need to beware of his 100 plus projected strikeouts.

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