History of MORPS (By Tim Oberschlake)
Using the nickname Obie, I created the Major-League Obie Role-Based Projection System (MORPS) in 2010. MORPS was first published in 2012 at a site called fantasyrankings2012 and has been published on this site each year thereafter.
In 2009 I began toying around with creating my own projection system. I began by reading Tango’s posts on his Marcels projection system (see article). He provided a great starting point by detailing his actual projection formulas. But, as he readily admits, it is a simple system. His success in comparisons is always based upon analysis of means. For fantasy baseball purposes, I needed something that had a more detailed analysis of individual players. Taking half of a player’s ABs last year, 10% of a player’s ABs two years ago and adding 200 doesn’t do the trick when the role of a player has drastically changed.
I’ve been using ZiPS for years. Dan does a great job of adjusting his projections to anticipated roles. He also includes major league and minor league data. For rookie starters with limited MLB ABs, his projections provide significant value. He also does a great job modeling playing time for veteran role players. The challenge is comparing all the ZiPS projections (which includes major and minor league ABs) to anticipated opening day rosters to figure out which players I really care about on draft day. I figured if I’m going to take the time to filter this list each year and I was already playing with Tango’s formulas, I might as well create my own list. Besides, the creator of CHONE was hired by a MLB team. Maybe if I get really good at this I can make my way to the big leagues if I ever decide to retire from my university position. I certainly couldn’t do it as a pitcher with a bum shoulder.
So …, I decided to publish MORPS in 2012. My plan is to simply do what I have done in years past in preparation for my fantasy season. The only difference being that I will post my work to this blog. It is not going to be sophisticated, but should be fantasy friendly. And, it will be free.
Bio of Tim Oberschlake
Tim Oberschlake was a Chief Information Officer for 13 years – 8 years in healthcare and 5 years in higher education. After the last of his 5 kids went off to college, he decided to go back to his roots in consulting. He started his IT career at Andersen Consulting working with well-known companies such as Proctor and Gamble, The Timken Company and Blockbuster Entertainment. He also gathered extensive technology leadership experience in small, medium and large organizations across multiple industries. Recently, he worked with Nationwide Insurance defining, planning and leading an effort focused on improving institutional decision making for their fastest growing business unit.
Tim is currently working with Navigator Management Partners. Navigator uses lean teams with experienced professionals to solve real world problems for their clients. While actively helping clients with large data analytic projects, he is also helping grow Navigator’s healthcare and higher education practice.
Tim was born and raised in Cincinnati Ohio. He is a veteran and graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point. He received a Master’s in Educational Leadership from Walsh University. Tim has been married to his wife Sheryl for 12 years. Their blended family includes five kids, five cats and two dogs.