Tagged: Al East
2016 MORPS Team Projections
MORPS 2016 team projections posted below. 2015 team projections only picked 50% of the playoff teams which is better than the 2014. We definitely missed on the Kansas City Royals and their World Series win. On the positive side, we did predict playoff runs for the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates and Blue Jays. Our only miss in the NL was the Cubs over the Nationals. The AL is another story. In addition to the Royals, we also missed on the Astros, Rangers, and Yankees. Predicting 50% of the playoff participants isn’t bad considering the number of roster changes that happen during the course of the season. Between 2013 and 2010, MORPS team projections averaged 73%. We are hoping move in that direction this year.
This year’s team projections are as follows:
American League |
||
2014 AL East |
Wins |
Losses |
Toronto |
90 |
72 |
Boston |
83 |
79 |
Tampa Bay |
81 |
81 |
Baltimore |
78 |
84 |
New York |
75 |
87 |
2014 AL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Cleveland |
88 |
74 |
Detroit |
83 |
79 |
Chicago |
80 |
82 |
Minnesota |
77 |
85 |
Kansas City |
73 |
89 |
2014 AL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Seattle |
87 |
75 |
Houston |
86 |
76 |
Texas |
82 |
80 |
Los Angeles |
78 |
84 |
Oakland |
77 |
85 |
|
||
National League |
||
2014 NL East |
Wins |
Losses |
New York |
97 |
65 |
Washington |
87 |
75 |
Miami |
81 |
81 |
Atlanta |
67 |
95 |
Philadelphia |
64 |
98 |
2014 NL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Chicago |
92 |
70 |
Saint Louis |
84 |
78 |
Pittsburgh |
82 |
80 |
Cincinnati |
75 |
87 |
Milwaukee |
74 |
88 |
2014 NL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Los Angeles |
95 |
67 |
San Francisco |
88 |
74 |
Arizona |
81 |
81 |
San Diego |
73 |
89 |
Colorado |
71 |
91 |
The Division winners in the NL are New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles with Washington and San Francisco slipping in as the wild card teams. The division winners are certainly not a surprise nor are the wildcard teams. The American League Division winners will be Toronto, Cleveland, and Seattle with Houston as a wildcard team. Boston and Detroit will play a one game playoff to determine the last wildcard spot. Unlike the NL, MORPS predictions in the AL will be s surprise to most. USA Today has Cleveland finishing third and Seattle fourth.
While the team with the most wins don’t always do that well in the playoffs, such distinctions can’t be made with a projection system built around “Runs Created” and “Runs Allowed”. MORPS is projecting an AL championship between Cleveland and Toronto with Toronto going to the world series. In the National League it will be Los Angeles versus New York with the Mets going to the world series. MORPS projects that the New York Mets will win the series in 6 games.
Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.
As always, feel free to post your comments.
2014 MORPS Team Projections
MORPS 2014 projections will be ready later this week. While everyone is waiting, I thought some might enjoy reading the MORPS Team Projections for 2014. In 2013, MORPS picked 4 of the 6 division winners based upon projected wins and losses. This included Boston, Saint Louis and Detroit. Of the four teams that went to a championship series, only the Dodgers were not in the MORPS playoff projections. They missed on that projection by one whole game.
This year’s team projections are as follows:
American League |
||
2014 AL East |
Wins |
Losses |
New York |
89 |
73 |
Toronto |
89 |
73 |
Tampa Bay |
87 |
75 |
Boston |
78 |
84 |
Baltimore |
70 |
92 |
2014 AL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Detroit |
93 |
69 |
Kansas City |
83 |
79 |
Chicago |
80 |
82 |
Cleveland |
78 |
84 |
Minnesota |
66 |
96 |
2014 AL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Texas |
82 |
80 |
Seattle |
82 |
80 |
Houston |
81 |
81 |
Los Angeles |
79 |
83 |
Oakland |
79 |
83 |
|
||
National League |
||
2014 NL East |
Wins |
Losses |
Washington |
85 |
77 |
Atlanta |
83 |
79 |
Philadelphia |
81 |
81 |
New York |
79 |
83 |
Miami |
75 |
87 |
2014 NL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Saint Louis |
91 |
71 |
Milwaukee |
88 |
74 |
Cincinnati |
80 |
82 |
Pittsburgh |
74 |
88 |
Chicago |
64 |
98 |
2014 NL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Colorado |
98 |
64 |
Los Angeles |
86 |
76 |
San Diego |
81 |
81 |
San Francisco |
77 |
85 |
Arizona |
74 |
88 |
3/27/2014 update – Roster changes and injuries have helped some teams and hurt others over the course of Spring Training. The team projections have been updated to reflect current team rosters and player projections. Atlanta’s pitching injuries have dropped them in the standings and elevated the Washington Nationals to NL East Division winners for 2014. Toronto and Tampa Bay have distanced themselves from the rest of the AL pack for wild card spots. The rest of the projected division winners and wild card projections remain the same – New York, Detroit and Texas as division winners in the AL, Saint Louis and Colorado as the other NL division winners, and Milwaukee and Los Angeles with the wild card spots in the NL.
2/25/2014 Original Post – Each year the numbers surprise me because they rarely agree with the talking heads on popular sports talk shows around the country. This year is no different. Division winners this year include New York, Detroit and Texas in the AL while Atlanta, Saint Louis and Colorado will represent the NL. The wild card in the AL is going to come down to the wire. MORPS is projecting the first wild card to be Tampa Bay while the second wild card is a three-way tie between Seattle, Kansas City, and Toronto. Can you say multiple play in games – wouldn’t that be exciting. The wild card race in the NL is a little more straight forward with Milwaukee and the Dodgers distancing themselves from the rest of the pack.
Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.
As always, feel free to post your comments.
2013 MORPS Team Projections
2013 MORPS MLB Team Projections are outlined below. Unlike last year, I am not going to introduce the projections one team at a time. One advantage of moving to a relational database is that the formulas, once applied correctly, are available for all teams in all divisions.
American League |
||
2012 AL East |
Wins |
Losses |
Boston |
87 |
75 |
New York |
87 |
75 |
Toronto |
84 |
78 |
Tampa Bay |
80 |
82 |
Baltimore |
72 |
90 |
2012 AL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Detroit |
96 |
66 |
Chicago |
82 |
80 |
Kansas City |
81 |
81 |
Cleveland |
74 |
88 |
Minnesota |
71 |
91 |
2012 AL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Los Angeles |
91 |
71 |
Texas |
86 |
76 |
Oakland |
81 |
81 |
Seattle |
77 |
85 |
Houston |
64 |
98 |
|
||
National League |
||
2012 NL East |
Wins |
Losses |
Atlanta |
88 |
74 |
Washington |
87 |
75 |
Philadelphia |
85 |
77 |
New York |
77 |
85 |
Miami |
68 |
94 |
2012 NL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Cincinnati |
88 |
74 |
Saint Louis |
88 |
74 |
Milwaukee |
84 |
78 |
Pittsburgh |
74 |
88 |
Chicago |
70 |
92 |
2012 NL West |
Wins |
Losses |
San Francisco |
88 |
74 |
Los Angeles |
86 |
76 |
Arizona |
83 |
79 |
Colorado |
79 |
83 |
San Diego |
72 |
90 |
Projections were somewhat easier this year because all divisions in both leagues have the same number of teams. This means that each team plays the same number of games within their respective divisions and leagues as well as the same number of inter-league games. This does not mean that the competition that each team plays is the same. Some divisions, as always, are stronger than others.
I must admit that my projections were a surprise. They certainly don’t align with the messages I am hearing on major talk radio shows over the last month. No one has Boston on top of the American League East. Their pitching staff is projected to be one of the five worst in the American League. However, their offense is projected to be the best in the majors. One team that has received a lot of attention in recent weeks is the Cleveland Indians. Their offense is certainly going to be better than last year, but their starting pitching is projected to be the worst in baseball.
Projected division winners in the American League are Detroit, Los Angeles, and Boston. New York and Texas are projected to be the AL wild card teams. The National League division winners are Atlanta, San Francisco and Cincinnati. The NL wild card teams are Saint Louis and Washington. I found it interesting that four National League teams have an equivalent projection of 88 wins. Unlike the American League, the National League doesn’t have any run away division winners.
Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.
As always, feel free to post your comments.