Tagged: American League

2016 MORPS Team Projections

MORPS 2016 team projections posted below.  2015 team projections only picked 50% of the playoff teams which is better than the 2014. We definitely missed on the Kansas City Royals and their World Series win.   On the positive side, we did predict playoff runs for the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates and Blue Jays.  Our only miss in the NL was the Cubs over the Nationals.  The AL is another story.  In addition to the Royals, we also missed on the Astros, Rangers, and Yankees.  Predicting 50% of the playoff participants isn’t bad considering the number of roster changes that happen during the course of the season.  Between 2013 and 2010, MORPS team projections averaged 73%.  We are hoping move in that direction this year.

This year’s team projections are as follows:

American League

2014 AL East

Wins

Losses

Toronto

90

72

Boston

83

79

Tampa Bay

81

81

Baltimore

78

84

New York

75

87

2014 AL Central

Wins

Losses

Cleveland

88

74

Detroit

83

79

Chicago

80

82

Minnesota

77

85

Kansas City

73

89

2014 AL West

Wins

Losses

Seattle

87

75

Houston

86

76

Texas

82

80

Los Angeles

78

84

Oakland

77

85

 

National League

2014 NL East

Wins

Losses

New York

97

65

Washington

87

75

Miami

81

81

Atlanta

67

95

Philadelphia

64

98

2014 NL Central

Wins

Losses

Chicago

92

70

Saint Louis

84

78

Pittsburgh

82

80

Cincinnati

75

87

Milwaukee

74

88

2014 NL West

Wins

Losses

Los Angeles

95

67

San Francisco

88

74

Arizona

81

81

San Diego

73

89

Colorado

71

91

The Division winners in the NL are New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles with Washington and San Francisco slipping in as the wild card teams.  The division winners are certainly not a surprise nor are the wildcard teams.  The American League Division winners will be Toronto, Cleveland, and Seattle with Houston as a wildcard team.  Boston and Detroit will play a one game playoff to determine the last wildcard spot.  Unlike the NL, MORPS predictions in the AL will be s surprise to most.  USA Today has Cleveland finishing third and Seattle fourth.

While the team with the most wins don’t always do that well in the playoffs, such distinctions can’t be made with a projection system built around “Runs Created” and “Runs Allowed”.   MORPS is projecting an AL championship between Cleveland and Toronto with Toronto going to the world series.  In the National League it will be Los Angeles versus New York with the Mets going to the world series.  MORPS projects that the New York Mets will win the series in 6 games.

Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.

As always, feel free to post your comments.

2014 MORPS Team Projections

MORPS 2014 projections will be ready later this week.  While everyone is waiting, I thought some might enjoy reading the MORPS Team Projections for 2014.  In 2013, MORPS picked 4 of the 6 division winners based upon projected wins and losses.  This included Boston, Saint Louis and Detroit.  Of the four teams that went to a championship series, only the Dodgers were not in the MORPS playoff projections.  They missed on that projection by one whole game.

This year’s team projections are as follows:

American League

2014 AL East

Wins

Losses

New York

89

73

Toronto

89

73

Tampa Bay

87

75

Boston

78

84

Baltimore

70

92

2014 AL Central

Wins

Losses

Detroit

93

69

Kansas City

83

79

Chicago

80

82

Cleveland

78

84

Minnesota

66

96

2014 AL West

Wins

Losses

Texas

82

80

Seattle

82

80

Houston

81

81

Los Angeles

79

83

Oakland

79

83

 

National League

2014 NL East

Wins

Losses

Washington

85

77

Atlanta

83

79

Philadelphia

81

81

New York

79

83

Miami

75

87

2014 NL Central

Wins

Losses

Saint Louis

91

71

Milwaukee

88

74

Cincinnati

80

82

Pittsburgh

74

88

Chicago

64

98

2014 NL West

Wins

Losses

Colorado

98

64

Los Angeles

86

76

San Diego

81

81

San Francisco

77

85

Arizona

74

88

3/27/2014 update – Roster changes and injuries have helped some teams and hurt others over the course of Spring Training.  The team projections have been updated to reflect current team rosters and player projections.  Atlanta’s pitching injuries have dropped them in the standings and elevated the Washington Nationals to NL East Division winners for 2014.  Toronto and Tampa Bay have distanced themselves from the rest of the AL pack for wild card spots.  The rest of the projected division winners and wild card projections remain the same – New York, Detroit and Texas as division winners in the AL, Saint Louis and Colorado as the other NL division winners, and Milwaukee and Los Angeles with the wild card spots in the NL.

2/25/2014 Original Post – Each year the  numbers surprise me because they rarely agree with the talking heads on popular sports talk shows around the country.  This year is no different.  Division winners this year include New York, Detroit and Texas in the AL while Atlanta, Saint Louis and Colorado will represent the NL.  The wild card in the AL is going to come down to the wire.  MORPS is projecting the first wild card to be Tampa Bay while the second wild card is a three-way tie between Seattle, Kansas City, and Toronto.  Can you say multiple play in games – wouldn’t that be exciting.  The wild card race in the NL is a little more straight forward with Milwaukee and the Dodgers distancing themselves from the rest of the pack.  

Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.

As always, feel free to post your comments.

2013 MORPS Team Projections

2013 MORPS MLB Team Projections are outlined below.  Unlike last year, I am not going to introduce the projections one team at a time.  One advantage of moving to a relational database is that the formulas, once applied correctly, are available for all teams in all divisions.

American League

2012 AL East

Wins

Losses

Boston

87

75

New York

87

75

Toronto

84

78

Tampa Bay

80

82

Baltimore

72

90

2012 AL Central

Wins

Losses

Detroit

96

66

Chicago

82

80

Kansas City

81

81

Cleveland

74

88

Minnesota

71

91

2012 AL West

Wins

Losses

Los Angeles

91

71

Texas

86

76

Oakland

81

81

Seattle

77

85

Houston

64

98

 

National League

2012 NL East

Wins

Losses

Atlanta

88

74

Washington

87

75

Philadelphia

85

77

New York

77

85

Miami

68

94

2012 NL Central

Wins

Losses

Cincinnati

88

74

Saint Louis

88

74

Milwaukee

84

78

Pittsburgh

74

88

Chicago

70

92

2012 NL West

Wins

Losses

San Francisco

88

74

Los Angeles

86

76

Arizona

83

79

Colorado

79

83

San Diego

72

90

Projections were somewhat easier this year because all divisions in both leagues have the same number of teams.  This means that each team plays the same number of games within their respective divisions and leagues as well as the same number of inter-league games.  This does not mean that the competition that each team plays is the same.  Some divisions, as always, are stronger than others.

I must admit that my projections were a surprise.  They certainly don’t align with the messages I am hearing on major talk radio shows over the last month.  No one has Boston on top of the American League East.  Their pitching staff is projected to be one of the five worst in the American League.  However, their offense is projected to be the best in the majors.  One team that has received a lot of attention in recent weeks is the Cleveland Indians.  Their offense is certainly going to be better than last year, but their starting pitching is projected to be the worst in baseball.

Projected division winners in the American League are Detroit, Los Angeles, and Boston.  New York and Texas are projected to be the AL wild card teams.  The National League division winners are Atlanta, San Francisco and Cincinnati.  The NL wild card teams are Saint Louis and Washington.  I found it interesting that four National League teams have an equivalent projection of 88 wins.  Unlike the American League, the National League doesn’t have any run away division winners.

Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.

As always, feel free to post your comments.