Tagged: Rotisserie

2016 MORPS Projections

2016 MORPS projections are finally ready.  Unlike the baseline projections published several weeks ago, these projections include all players projected to win a MLB roster spot on opening day.  I have also included a number of impact rookies who are projected to join a roster early or mid-season in 2016.  Rookie projections use stats generated during either minor league or international play.  Factors are applied to adjust the stats to MLB equivalent stats.  MORPS projections also account for expected adjustments in personal playing time.

The excel version of the projections include a key tab that defines all headings used in the projections.  In short, fantasy baseball players that play in rotisserie leagues should key on the R-ROTO and ROTO columns.  ROTO is a point value derived from weights on the categories in a standard 5×5 rotisserie league.  R-ROTO is the player ranking based upon the ROTO point values.  If you league uses a customer scoring system, you can use the projections in the categories of interest to customize your rankings.  Fantasy baseball players that play in a more realistic format like Baseball Manager or a similar simulation league should reorder the pitching based upon OERV and the batting based upon RC.  OERV stands for Out Earned Run Value.  This stat attempts to value a pitcher by combining ERA with the value of number of innings pitched.  This is a way for fantasy managers in simulation leagues to compare the value of a relief pitcher with a starter or a starter who pitches 200 innings with one that pitches 100 with a slightly lower ERA.  RC is Runs Created.  A league like Baseball Manager uses RC as a basis for the points they generate in their daily games.  The more realistic the simulation, the closer the hitting will align with RC.

2016 MORPS Batting Projections (XLS)

2016 MORPS Batting Projections (PDF)

2016 MORPS Pitching Projections (XLS)

2016 MORPS Pitching Projections (PDF)

For those who like to resort the projections for their own fantasy system, make sure you filter out the players with a roster status of “N”.  These players will most likely not make an opening day 25 man roster.  Those players who were still in competition for a position were included with a roster status of “Y” in most cases.  I posted the “N” players for those managers who have keeper leagues or deeper rosters that may want to pull one of these folks onto their list.

Team projections for 2016 will be posted within the next week.

Play Ball!

Final 2014 MORPS Projection Updates

Most opening day rosters are set which means its time for the final 2014 MORPS projections.  If you’re a Braves fan, you have to be wondering why your city is cursed.  First its the traffic jam to end all traffic jams.  Next, it’s all your pitchers getting hit by the injury bug.  I’m hoping that some minor adjustments this year will yield even better results for this year’s projections.  We’ll check in October to see how the numbers mapped to real stats.

For those who play Fantasy, remember to sort your stats for your scoring system.  Baseball Manager (BBM) managers should sort batters by Runs Created (RC) and pitchers by OERV.  This should yield the best results for simulation leagues that use real stats for nightly scoring.  Roto leagues should use the projections as presented below.

MORPS updates for pitchers and batters are as follows:

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140327 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140327 (PDF)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140327 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140327 (PDF)

Feel free to leave comments or suggestions.

2014 Updates for MORPS Projections

Spring Training always adds unexpected twists for projection systems.  This year is no different.  Injuries, position battle updates, and unexpected player transactions lead to changes in player projections.  During the year, this simply leads to variance from projected player performance.  During Spring Training, projection systems have a chance to make last-minute corrections to account for all these changes.

MORPS updates for pitchers and batters are as follows:

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140313 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140313 (PDF)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140313 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140313 (PDF)

Feel free to leave comments or suggestions.

Obie

2014 MORPS Roto Draft Tool

I came across an excel tool two years ago from Razzball that automated much of the draft process for ROTO leagues.  I modified it with MORPS projections and added a bit more functionality.  It worked well for my ROTO drafts the last two years.  Thus, I decided to use it again this year.  I also decided to share the modified tool this year with MORPS followers.

2014 MORPS Roto Draft Tool

Take time to check the instructions page.  It highlights what needs done to complete your preparation.  The User Input page allows you to customize the tool for your own league, goals, etc.  The only other page you will need to alter in any way is the Players page.  During the draft, you update players taken on this page with a drop down team selection that uses the teams you entered on the User Input page.  Players are automatically marked as taken in the dashboard by stat and the dashboard by position.  This allows you to see next available players based upon position or any of the standard 5×5 roto stat categories.  The War Room is where all the player draft data is consolidated together to give you a running overview of your team and the other teams in your league.

Feel free to make suggestions for improvement.  Hopefully everyone else finds it as useful as I did with my own drafts.

2014 MORPS Projections

MORPS projections are late coming this year.  I’ve delivered a set of baseline projections several weeks ago.  However, you’ll find that the actual projections have some drastic differences.  I’m always amazed by the amount of player movement during the off season.

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140227 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Batting Projections 20140227 (PDF)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140227 (XLS)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections 20140227 (PDF)

Batting Projections

The Major-League Obie Role-Based Projection System (MORPS) uses four years of player performance data for all hitters. Since I started playing with Sabermetrics using Tango’s Marcel system, the first iteration of MORPS four years ago used the same formulas. After learning the basics, the batter formulas were adjusted to include the most recent four years of performance data. Adjustments were also made for player age, home ballpark data and expected playing time. The most complicated part of the system is the regression formulas. Tango provided formulas for his three year model. I had to crack open the math books to figure out how to transition the formulas to a four year model.

One of the most time consuming tasks in developing the system was determining the proper mean for player regression. If the goal was to ensure that the mean of all the projections competed favorably with end of year player means, the task would have been straight forward. However, my goal was to make the actual player projections as accurate as possible. “Role-Based” means that the player projections are regressed to position specific means. National League means are also separated from American League means.

While conducting research, I noticed that most projection systems used minor league stats as well as any available major league stats to project the future performance of young players. There are even formulas that anticipate player regression when entering the majors. The interesting thing is that Tango’s Marcel system does just as good at predicting rookie performance as other projection systems and he doesn’t use any minor league stats. Some players are great in the minors and simply can’t make the jump to the major leagues. Some players start out great, but find that major league pitchers start exploiting weaknesses they never knew they had. Others outperform all expectations. By calculating the reliability of a player’s projection using only major league data, MORPS adds a proportional dosage of a player’s positional mean to complete a rookie’s player projection. Since we are focused on individual player performance, I didn’t see the point of including all minor league stats when the results don’t seem to provide significant value. The last year of a rookies minor league or international season is included, with appropriate adjustments for competition, if no major league experience exists.  While efforts have been made to adjust projections to reflect anticipated playing time, players who have a roster flag of “N” are projected using baseline projections only.

Pitching Projections

The formulas used to create pitcher projections are very similar to those that we have already discussed with batters. MORPS uses four years of data to create a pitcher projection. Adjustments are made for age, home field and anticipated role. The reliability of a projection is calculated based upon the amount of data available for a particular player. Someone with low reliability will regress more to a position specific mean than someone that has faced a lot of major league batters over the last four years.

The big difference between projecting pitchers and batters is the usage disparity between relief pitchers and starting pitchers. A good relief pitcher may face 350 batters in a season. A top end starting pitcher may pitch to 900 batters in a season. The plate appearances for position players are typically not dependent on role. A first baseman and shortstop may both have 600 plate appearances over the course of a year. Their position means will be different. First basement will typically have higher power stats while shortstops have higher speed stats. But, they are similar enough that their projections can be calculated using the same basic formulas. The disparity between relief and starting pitchers forces them to be calculated very differently. For months I struggled with pitching projections. When I finally figured out that starting pitchers and relief pitchers had to be calculated separately, everything fell in place.

2014 MORPS Baseline Projections

I’ve received several emails asking about 2014 MORPS projections.  My day job now includes travel which has left me less time to work on these projections.  In the interest of time, I have put together a quick and dirty baseline version of 2014 MORPS projections.  “What does this mean?” you may ask.  Well… the short story is that the projections do not include any player team changes or role changes.  I also did not error check.  Will Cano’s stats go down in Seattle?  Absolutely, but this set of projections have not accounted for his change in venue.  You will need to take this into account if you are preparing for an early draft.  Those things being said, the projection engine is the same one I automated last year.  This means that the projections are still based on four years of data, positional mean regression, etc.  In most cases, the numbers are fairly close to final values.  Time permitting, I hope to publish a set of updated projections during Spring Training that include player roles and team changes.

Baseline 2014 MORPS Batting and Pitching projections are available in excel and PDF formats.  Follow the links below to download your copy.

2014 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (XLS)

2014 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (PDF)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (XLS)

2014 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (PDF)

If you player Roto baseball, you will find the projections already sorted in Roto Rank order.  If you play a more realistic version of fantasy baseball, like BBM, you will need to resort the XLS spreadsheet in RC order for batters and OERV order for pitchers.

Play Ball!

2013 MORPS Roto Draft Tool Update

The latest MORPS updates are now incorporated into the 2013 MORPS Roto Draft Tool.  The tool was updated found within the first posting at the following link – click here.

One major change was an update to how the ROTO value and ROTO RANK are calculated.  I found in a number of my drafts that MORPS projections were suggesting picks like Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn well before other lists on the market.  Players were getting “points” for number of homers, runs, and batting average; however, I was not showing the negative impact that a player could have with a rate stat like batting average.  Adjustments were made to the formulas.  Players with low batting averages will now show negative impact on your fantasy team as well as their positive impact within certain counting stats.

Update of 2013 MORPS Projections

Updates have  been posted for both batting and pitching projections.  These updates include all players that are currently projected to make each team’s 25 man roster according to MLBDEPTHCHARTS.  A large number of non-roster players have also been included.  However, non-roster players have not been “modeled” for MORPS projections.  This means that their projection is based only on historical and mean data.  All active players are assigned a rotorank prior to non-roster players.  Thus, all non-roster players are at the end of the MORPS projections.  This includes free agents.  If some of these players actually win a roster position, compare their roto column to those of active players to decide where they should be slotted.  For simulation leagues, you would use the RC column for batters and OERV for pitchers.

2013 MORPS Batting Projections

2013 MORPS Pitching Projections

As players are signed and spring training position battles are settled, I will plan on updating the projections.  This will occur periodically until the season starts.

2013 MORPS ROTO Draft Tool

I came across an excel tool last year from Razzball that automated much of the draft process for ROTO leagues.  I modified it with MORPS projections and added a bit more functionality.  It worked well for my ROTO draft last year.  Thus, I decided to use it again this year.  I also decided to share the modified tool this year with MORPS followers.

2013 MORPS Roto Draft Tool 20130223 (XLS)

Take time to check the instructions page.  It highlights what needs done to complete your preparation.  The User Input page allows you to customize the tool for your own league, goals, etc.  The only other page you will need to alter in any way is the Players page.  During the draft, you update players taken on this page with a drop down team selection that uses the teams you entered on the User Input page.  Players are automatically marked as taken in the dashboard by stat and the dashboard by position.  This allows you to see next available players based upon position or any of the standard 5×5 roto stat categories.  The War Room is where all the player draft data is consolidated together to give you a running overview of your team and the other teams in your league.

Feel free to make suggestions for improvement.  Hopefully everyone else finds it as useful as I did with my own drafts.

What is the best fantasy baseball draft format?

How do I decide?

This is the second piece in a series focused on equipping fantasy managers with the tools they need to pick their optimal fantasy baseball league. The first article was titled “What fantasy baseball game should I play?” It focused on choosing a fantasy format based upon personal interests and format characteristics. The next step is to choose the type of draft you want. Five questions will be presented to guide you to a draft format best suited to your interests. Before we get to the questions, I need to give a brief history of the different draft formats. This will ensure that everyone is on the same page regarding the types of fantasy drafts available, strengths of each and also the weaknesses.

The oldest, and most common, fantasy draft is a serpentine draft. You may also hear it called a snake draft. Each manager is assigned a draft position (1 to X). The person in the first position picks the first player in the first round and the last player in the second round. The last manager chooses the last player in the first round and the first player in the second round. This back and forth selection of players occurs until all rosters are filled. The first fantasy baseball serpentine drafts were conducted using pen and paper in the early 1980s. Computer based software automated the process in the 1990s. Most serpentine drafts today use web based draft rooms. All rotisserie and most point leagues offer the serpentine draft format. With time limits on individual draft selections, serpentine drafts tend to take the least amount of time to complete compared to other draft formats. They also tend to be the easiest from a preparation perspective. Some managers can simply load their draft lists into the web draft room along with some basic position draft rules and let the system select their players. The negatives of a serpentine system are that draft order significantly influences player selection and it just isn’t all that exciting.

In the early 1990s, dynamic value drafts were introduced. You may also hear them called contract drafts. Each manager ranks the players on positional draft lists. The system asynchronously processes the draft lists, typically one position each night. Player salaries are set dynamically based upon manager rankings and players are selected for each manager based upon their draft list ranks /salary cap. The order that players are selected is determined by the amount of money remaining for each manager. For example, six starting pitchers may be selected on one night. At the beginning of the first SP selection, Manager A has the most money remaining. Thus, he picks first from his draft list. If the first player on his list has a value (based upon the ranking from all manager lists) that fits within his established position cap, the system selects that player for his team. After all managers have picked their first SP, the selection order is determined for the second SP based upon the updated order of most money remaining. After all SPs have been selected, the draft results are delivered to each manager within a draft results web page. The only site that uses this draft format today is the simulation league Baseball Manager. The negative of this format is the asynchronous/daily nature of the draft. The positives are the unique challenge of managing dynamic player valuations, a positional/global salary cap and multiple positional drafts over the course of a week. Another positive is that a manager is not tied to a specific draft order. If they want to get in a better draft position for the third base draft, they can choose to spend fewer dollars on players at second base and shortstop to bring their draft order up since it is based on remaining budget.

Over the last 10 years, auction drafts have become extremely popular. In an auction, each manager has a certain imaginary cap they can spend (i.e. $260) on a certain number of players (i.e. 26). Each manager nominates or introduces a certain number of players within a given timeframe or order. Once a player is introduced, all managers can bid or make offers on a player. The highest bidder signs the player to their roster. Most rotisserie and point leagues offer auction drafts in addition to their standard serpentine draft formats. However, auction drafts come in many flavors. Real time auctions typically resolve bidding one player at a time. Extended auctions resolve bidding X hours after the last bid on that player. Regardless, auctions will always take longer than a traditional serpentine draft. There is also a much greater chance that the competitive balance within an auction league will not be as consistent due to the complexity and strategy that each manager must employee. An auction draft does tend to be more exciting than a serpentine draft and does require more preparation and strategy. That being said, an auction draft also allows you to go after any player you want. Everyone has a chance to sign the number one overall player.

So…, without further delay, the questions that you need to ask yourself when you want to choose a fantasy draft format are as follows:

1. What fantasy format have you chosen to play?
a. Rotisserie – You can choose between serpentine and auction.
b. Simulation League – Dynamic Value Draft @ Baseball Manager.
c. Head –to-Head point league – You can choose between serpentine and auction.

2. Do you want to draft real time or extended over a period of days?
a. Real Time – You can choose between serpentine and auction.
b. Extended – You can choose between serpentine, auction or dynamic value

3. What is more important to you – simplicity or access to all players
a. Simplicity – Choose a serpentine draft
b. Access to All Players – Choose an auction or dynamic value draft

4. How important is strategy to you within a draft?
a. Shut up and Just let me pick my players – Serpentine draft
b. Strategy is Important – Choose an auction or dynamic value draft

5. What is more exciting to you?
a. Finishing the Draft – Choose a serpentine draft.
b. Hand to Hand Conflict for your player – Choose an auction draft.
c. Opening up Christmas presents for 8 days – Choose a dynamic value draft.

Hopefully these questions have helped you choose the fantasy draft format that best fits your needs. Feel free to offer comments if there are other things that you found important when making your choice of draft formats.